State of the Union • Ukrainian Unrest: PM Resigns + Anti-Protest Law Repealed • Syria Negotiations Collapsing • Egypt’s El-Sisi Running For President • Tunisia Passes New Constitution • NSA Leaks: App Data Exploits + UK Snooping On Global Traffic

2014 State of the Union Address

The President’s annual State of the Union address is tonight. It was among his more mild addresses, though it still had some important themes and moments. The major takeaways:

  • Go it alone: If congress can’t work together to get things done, then the President will do what he can on his own. This is codified talk for: I’ve tried to work with Republicans, but they are uncooperative. I’m going to take matters into my own hands now, manners and bipartisanship be damned. Naturally, Democrats loved this, Republicans decried it. The President can use both executive orders and federal agency regulations to enact specific policies without Congressional approval.
  • Democratic populism: Raising the minimum wage, attacking income equality, reforming the corporate tax code, and re-implementing long term unemployment insurance. These are democratic causes that carry a lot of weight across the country, and are good banners to fly in the wake of the Obamacare debacle. Since healthcare can no longer be used as a war cry, Democrats can instead use these populist causes to garner support and momentum going into the 2014 elections. Obama’s focus on these issues was a much-needed push for his party. In particular, the President talked a lot about a new Democratic bill that would raise the federal minimum wage from $7.25 to $10.10/hour. It’s doubtful this will pass as is, but we may end up seeing something like an $8.50-9.10 end result when it’s all said and done. Republicans will counter that raising minimum wage will force employers to layoff people, thus less jobs. This is an attractive theory, though it is not consensus opinion among economists (minimum wage increases and unemployment do not seem to correlate), especially when minimum wage has failed to track with inflation. In line with the first point, the President already used an executive order today to raise the minimum wage to $10.10 for all federal employees.
  • Obamacare: Acknowledged the successes of Obamacare without apologizing for its recent failures. Challenged Republicans to come up with their own healthcare plan, instead of just hating on his. Pretty typical stuff.
  • Stern on Congressional sanctions of Iran: As previously discussed, the US congress has been considering new Iran sanctions for the past month. These would completely derail the fresh attempt at diplomacy recently carved out by the President, Secretary Kerry, and the Iranian government. The President ran on the principle that he would negotiate with Iran, and possibly unthaw relations with the Persian state. The newest deal is his best chance of delivering on that principle and developing a key piece of his foreign policy legacy, so he is obviously eager to make sure it stays intact. Republicans would love to snipe off something Obama cares so much about, and congressional Democrats, facing heat from Israel/Israeli lobby, have been open to new sanctions as well. In response, the President said flat out that he will veto any Iranian sanctions bill passed in Congress, in order to “give diplomacy a chance”. He also noted that if Iran does not abide by the new deal, he will be first in line to unroll new sanctions, but not until then.
  • Touched lightly on NSA surveillance and foreign policy, but offered no real substance.

Ukrainian Unrest Continues

By now you should know the situation in Ukraine. If not, here’s a quick explanation (feel free to skip the next paragraph if you think you’ve got it):

Ukraine is a divided nation. About half the people (mostly living in the western and northern regions) are pro-European. They like western governments, they speak Ukranian, and they tend towards more progressive ideals. The other half (southern and eastern regions) are pro-Russia, speak Russian, and they favor a strong central government (read: more authoritarian) that operates closely with the motherland. In 2005, Ukraine had a revolution that allowed a democratic, westernized government to take power. This was short-lived, and soon after a more authoritarian, pro-Russian regime took over. This brings us to today. A few months back, the Ukrainian government had the chance to sign a sort of diplomatic deal with Europe, that would allow the country to participate more freely in European politics and economics. At the last minute, Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych backed out, and instead decided to focus on strengthening relations with Russia. This was obviously anathema to most of the northern and western populations of the country, and was kind of the final straw. Those pro-European Ukrainians were hopeful that they might finally have a chance to participate with the West, only to have it taken away at the last second. They were pissed, and they began protesting. Protests have now been sustained for two months.

In an attempt to stop the current bleeding, President Yanukovych took two drastic measures today. First, he fired the Prime Minister of the Ukrainian parliament, Mykola Azarov. Well, tehcnically Azarov resigned, but it was almost certainly at the behest of the President. The removal of Azarov is a small victory for protesters, but likely won’t amount to much systemic change. Yanukovych is the one that holds all the cards, and it’s not until he is gone that Ukraine will be able to modify its current state of affairs.

The second measure taken by Yanukovych was to repeal the current anti-protesting laws. These laws were enacted shortly after protests began, in an attempt to forcefully quell the dissent. Not surprisingly, they were totally ineffective—if anything, they caused more protests.

It seems unlikely at this point that things will settle down. Protesters want Yanukovych to resign, but that’s not going to happen (not anytime soon at least). Keep in mind that protesters only represent about half the country. Yanukovych is still popular in much of the state. This map gives a good idea of how loyalties break down:

While the demonstrations have been mostly non-violent so far, expect violence to ramp up in the coming months if no progress is made.

Syria Negotiations Aren’t Going Well

The grand negotiations to solve the Syria crisis began last week in Switzerland. Notably absent is Iran, who was uninvited by the US, and subsequently by the UN. Iran was not happy about that, obviously. The dis-invitation set the tone early on that the talks were likely going to be unproductive, and the reality has certainly lived up to that. The negotiations themselves are currently stalled, with little hope of breakthrough. Today’s afternoon session was cancelled, after a contentious morning. The current anti-progress stems from two main disputes:

  • The prospect of a transitional authority. This authority would regulate and oversee the transition from Assad’s regime to a new regime and government. This point is one of the most basic principles of the talks, but Assad’s negotiators have refused to discuss it, essentially implying that Assad is not willing to step down. If that’s the case, then no progress will be made.
  • The US’ role in the opposition movement. Assad’s camp is upset the US armed and aided the broad opposition movement, which included many terrorist groups. Apparently this is not something Assad and his supporters can come to terms with.

Egypt’s Top General Running for President, Furthers Link Between Military and Government

Egypt continues its way down the path of military government, as its top military leader postures for a Presidential run. General Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, famed for leading the effort to oust former President Mohamed Morsi, was given the green light to run for President by the Egyptian military’s regulating body. Since Morsi left, el-Sisi has already been kind of running the show; this election will allow him to legitimize his influence and formally become Egypt’s premier leader.

So just to recap: the military has approved (and will endorse) the Presidential candidacy of its leader, and the same guy who caused the current Presidential vacancy. This has obviously caused many to question whether el-Sisi’s assistance to oust Morsi wasn’t self-motivated.

In fairness, el-Sisi is wildly popular, and will almost certainly win any election by a landslide. The general has served his country well, and he shouldn’t be excluded from candidacy just because of his position in the military. However, Egypt already has a reputation for being a military junta, at risk of becoming a long-term military dictatorship. El-Sisi’s election would only further confirm skeptics’ concerns that the Egyptian government is ultimately controlled by its military (and more specifically, the military generals), leaving little hope for the prospect of a truly independent, democratic state.

The elections have not yet been scheduled, but will likely occur sometime in May or June.

Tunisia Passes New Constitution

After a two-year drafting process, Tunisia’s national assembly passed the country’s new constitution on Sunday. 200 of 216 legislators voted in favor of the document. Tunisia was the first country to revolt during the Arab Spring, and is considered to be one of the catalysts for the global event.

The new constitution is very progressive, which is impressive considering the political conflict the country has dealt with since its initial revolution two years ago. Not three months ago the country was in the midst of heavy protests against the Islamist majority in the government. Thankfully, differences have been somewhat worked out, allowing that Islamist majority to work together with the leftists/liberals to produce what many think is the most progressive set of laws in the current Arab world. Some key points of the constitution:

  • No Sharia basis, the law is secular
  • Establishes democratic institutions to structure the government
  • provides due process
  • forbids torture
  • allows for broad religious freedom, including the right to atheism
  • equality between men and women, focused heavily on women’s rights and protection

Not bad, Tunis.

Snowden Provides More Leaks: App Data Targeted, UK Snooping on Global Traffic

Another set of leaks, another glimpse into the breadth of the NSA’s (and GCHQ) spying programs.

Leak #1: App Data

This first leak was published by The New York Times and ProPublica. The Guardian also has a good write-up on it. It goes like this:

The NSA is able to use security exploits in various mobile apps to access private user data maintained by said apps (primary source here).

To fully understand this program, you’ll first need to understand how advertising in the Internet age works. If you’re not familiar, here’s a brief explanation:

An app (or website) will ask to access some of your personal data, in exchange for free use. This usually includes basic information like location, age, race, ethnicity, and sex; but may also include more advanced details like sexual orientation, marital status, income, education level, political affiliations, music tastes, etc. This is a tradeoff—since the app costs no money, you are instead paying by offering personal information. The company is able to liquidate this data through advertising sales. For example, Facebook notices I go hiking a lot on the weekends, so it starts bombarding me with North Face and REI advertisements. Both companies will pay Facebook a higher premium to run their ads, because they know Facebook will apply their ads intelligently to users with relevant interests. Facebook may also sell that data/model to independent advertising platforms so that they may deliver advertisements with higher efficacy.

This is where the NSA comes in. Some apps don’t handle your user data in the most secure way possible, giving the NSA a conduit through which it can siphon out that private user information. The handoff between the app and the advertiser also allows for additional exploit opportunities.

If you’re wondering whether or not this legal, the answer is, of course, that it probably resides in a gray area. The government could argue that it is using data made available by non-secure apps; any qualms users have should be taken up with the companies producing these apps, not the government. This is true, although it neglects the reality that the government has probably spent great time and effort trying to find and maximize all available exploits.

The breadth and implementation of this particular program is not fully known, beyond the fact that it is large. As usual, the NSA, did not comment on the matter.

Leak #2: Squeaky Dolphin

This program, code named “Squeaky Dolphin”, allows the GCHQ to tap into real-time data flows that pass through British network exchanges (of which about 11% of global Internet traffic does), and monitor certain types of Facebook, YouTube, and Blogger traffic. Specifically, the agency could see metadata (who, where, and when) on Facebook Likes, blog visits, and YouTube content viewership (primary source here). This is not unlike the MUSCULAR program, unveiled back in late October, which allowed the NSA and GCHQ to tap directly into certain data flows from Google and Yahoo, presumably without those companies’ consent and/or knowledge.

About All This Data

One thing that I think is important to point out here is that, as far as we can reasonably know, the NSA/GCHQ isn’t specifically spying on you, or anyone really. These dragnet programs are not about specificity or targeting (there is an entire separate process if the NSA wants to specifically spy on a person); it’s about having a giant pool of data handy should the need for specificity come about.

A search in an FBI database for your name will not bring up any of your data the PRISM or MUSCULAR programs may have mined. The collection of all this data is just that—collection—there is no parsing. I think a lot of people imagine all of this “snooping” to result in some kind of meaningful archive, and that’s probably not the case. However, it’s possible that at a later date, the NSA could go into this large volume of data and begin organizing it in a way that allows them to associate each piece of data with a US citizen. We are not there yet, but the fear among many is that we are setting the stage for such an opportunity, by allowing the NSA to establish such a collection. In the wrong hands, the NSA’s data could be put to brutal and Orwellian use.

Tech Sector Gets Small Victory Against NSA

Probably the most influential actor in the movement against NSA surveillance has been the US’ tech sector. Google, Yahoo, Facebook, etc. have all made it clear that they aren’t on board with the NSA’s various programs, and would prefer the government tone down these activities. One particular point of contention has been gag orders—essentially, rules that prohibit tech companies from releasing the numbers on NSA requests for user info. To appease the businesses (which are major part of the American economy), the government has partially lifted the prohibitions on disclosure.

Under this new order, companies will be able to provide details on information requests, but only in groups of 1,000, and on a time-delayed basis. In particular, these companies will now be able to disclose information on NSLs (National Security Letters). NSLs require an electronic service provider to hand over the “name, address, length of service, and local and long distance toll billing records” for any user deemed necessary. What’s more is that the company being forced to hand over the data is not allowed to tell the targeted user(s)/customers that their data is being summoned, nor can it provide numbers on NSLs received. While the user gag order is still intact, tech companies will now be able to disclose how many NSLs they receive.

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That’a all the news for today.